강사: Ian Bowers, Øystein Tunsjø

강의 주제: 
(1) Ian Bowers: Arms Racing and Military Competition in the Contemporary Era. 
(2) Oystein Tunsjo: The Risk of Limited War in Maritime East Asia. 

일자: 2026년 02월 24일 화요일. 

시간: 13:30~15:30 PM

장소: 수선관 9층 61907

강의 소개
(1) Ian Bowers: Arms Racing and Military Competition in the Contemporary Era

Are the United States and China amidst an intensifying militarily competition? Traditional ways of measuring such competition – comparing military budgets or the building of similar platforms – indicate that the answer is a resounding no. While China is rapidly expanding its navy, the United States is not keeping pace. Similarly, whereas Chinese military budgets have increased dramatically in absolute terms (albeit not in relative terms), U.S. military budgets have not. Yet, for all intents and purposes, both countries are heavily engaged in competition with political, strategic and force posture signals all indicate the emergence of a competitive, adversarial military dynamic. Traditional measurements now often fail to capture how modern, advanced militaries compete. Based on a forthcoming article in the journal Comparative Strategy, this talk shows that both academic and policy communities need to update their methodologies. By examining the operational concepts of militaries, one can discern how and against whom they are preparing for war. This approach reflects changes in contemporary warfare where the creation of effects from multiple sources now dominates operational planning. 

(2) Oystein Tunsjo: The Risk of Limited War in Maritime East Asia

Professor Tunsjø will in his talk argue that there is a new U.S.–China bipolar international system. Although some observers have compared the U.S.–China superpower rivalry to the Cold War, important geographical differences make limited war in today’s East Asia more likely than it was in Cold War Europe. During the Cold War, the main confrontation zone was Central Europe, a dense land theater where any war would have escalated quickly and catastrophically. Because both sides understood that even a limited conflict could rapidly become a full-scale nuclear war, leaders were strongly deterred from military action. In contrast, the current rivalry between the United States and China is centered on maritime East Asia, especially Taiwan. Fighting at sea is easier to limit than fighting on land, which paradoxically lowers the threshold for war. Since Taiwan is separated by water and the U.S. has no permanent forces stationed there, American stakes are seen as lower than they were in Europe. This could encourage Chinese leaders to believe they might attack Taiwan without provoking full U.S. intervention, increasing the chance of conflict. Geography also affects nuclear risks. In Cold War Europe, using even “tactical” nuclear weapons would likely have caused massive civilian casualties and uncontrollable escalation. In East Asia, however, there are fewer concentrated targets, and nuclear strikes could theoretically be more limited and precise, such as against ships or isolated bases. This makes limited nuclear use more thinkable, even if still extremely dangerous. The talk concludes that maintaining peace today requires a different strategy from the Cold War. Nuclear deterrence is not as central in the contemporary superpower rivalry in East Asia as in Europe during the Cold War. Instead, the United States must focus on strengthening conventional military balance in the region—especially by working with regional allies—to prevent China from believing it could win a limited war.

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